Prediction for Probability of Fatigue-Related Accident in Motorcyclists

Lumba, Pada and Priyanto, Sigit and Muthohar, Imam (2017) Prediction for Probability of Fatigue-Related Accident in Motorcyclists. Applied Science and Technology, 1 (1). pp. 482-488. ISSN 25794086

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Abstract

Abstract: This study emphasizes on the probability of fatigue-related accidents in motorcyclists. 70.93% accidents that occured from July 1, 2015 until December 31, 2015 throughout Indonesia involved motorcycles. The research took place in Bekasi City, Indonesia. Samples were comprised of 238 respondents taken using interview. Attributes that affect the probability of fatigue-related accidents were: long duration of driving, age, road side variability, road geometry, road condition, riding time. The result of Structure of Bayesian Network Model indicates that the probability of fatigue-related accidents was 48%. Model accuracy calculation employed new data consisting of 60 respondents. The model accuracy calculation indicated that the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) was 26.28%. Scenario 1 indicated that a 90 minute trip was a safe limit for a monotonous highway driving. Scenario 2 indicated that road side variability and winding road would decrease the monotonous levels from 43% to 22%. Furthermore, scenario 3 indicated that the probability of fatigue-related accidents increased from 06:00 AM to 12:00 PM, 12:00 PM to 06:00 PM, 06.00 PM-12.00 AM by 39%, 47%, 67% respectively. Meanwhile, in the period of 12:00 AM to 06:00 AM the probability of fatigue-related accidents decreased by 54%.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Sipil
Depositing User: Dr Pada Lumba
Date Deposited: 01 Sep 2022 06:39
Last Modified: 02 Sep 2022 04:52
URI: http://repository.upp.ac.id/id/eprint/1274

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